Africa Modelling Bridge a modelling movement

Approach

How a movement actually runs.

The Bridge convenes the ministry and the model, frames the questions a country owns, builds the capacity to answer them, and translates the outputs into decisions governments can act on and funders will back. Underneath that cadence sit five operating layers — from a public index of ministry information to a living archive of outputs. Below is how each layer works, what ships when, and why we chose this shape.

Theory of change

Information becomes questions. Questions become projects. Projects become decisions.

  1. Start

    Inputs

    Publicly available MoH information

  2. Step 1

    Method

    Structured in-person dialogue

  3. Step 2

    Output

    Country-led modelling questions

  4. Step 3

    Capacity

    BSc · MSc · PhD student projects

  5. Step 4

    Artefacts

    Concept notes · code · outputs

  6. End

    Outcome

    Better ministry decisions

00
Coming v0.1

Layer 0

MoH Information Bridge

A citable, teachable index of publicly available ministry documents.

Layer 0 is the unglamorous foundation everything else sits on. We index the documents that ministries already publish — strategic plans, surveillance bulletins, programme reviews, HMIS extracts, EPI bulletins, climate-health briefs — and turn them into a stable, findable, citable record that universities, students and modellers in the same country can actually use.

The index lives on the AMB website with stable URLs, version dates, and short structured summaries. It is offered back to the ministry as a public good, and re-indexed twice a year.

“Real institutional dialogue does not happen on public forums. It happens in rooms, then surfaces as durable artefacts.”

  • Country-scoped: TZ, MW, DRC at v0.1
  • Stable URLs + DOIs where appropriate
  • Co-curated with the in-country anchor
01
Coming v0.5

Layer 1

Dialogue sessions

Small in-person rooms. Two to four per country per year.

Layer 1 is the *Lunch for Democracy* lens applied to public-health modelling. Sessions are intentionally small — 15 to 25 people — and run around a shared meal. Ground rules: active listening, respectful disagreement, no rank in the room, no exclusion by discipline or seniority.

Each session opens with a short ministry brief on a current decision; it closes with a working list of modelling questions and a named follow-up owner. Notes are summarised, scrubbed for attribution, and folded into the Layer 2 portfolio.

  • 15–25 people; one ministry brief; one shared meal
  • Co-hosted with the country anchor
  • No press, no livestream, attribution by consent only
02
Coming v0.5

Layer 2

Annual modelling-question portfolio

3–5 country questions per year, feasible on a student timeline.

Layer 2 is where dialogue becomes work. The country anchor, the ministry, and the lead consultant draft a short portfolio of three to five modelling questions per country per year. Each question is feasible on a six-to-twelve-month student timeline, draws on publicly available data, and answers something a programme officer will recognise as their problem.

The portfolio is published openly on the site; it is the menu universities pick from for the next discovery cycle.

  • 6–12 month feasible scope
  • Publicly available data only at v0.5
  • Ministry sign-off before publication
03
Coming v0.5

Layer 3

Discovery sessions at universities

Interactive, inclusive, two to four per country per year.

Layer 3 takes the Layer 2 portfolio onto campus. Two to four discovery sessions per country, hosted by partner universities, open to any student or staff member regardless of background who wants to engage in good faith.

Each session walks through one or two questions, presents the methods landscape, includes a peer panel with a working modeller from the country anchor's network, and ends with a concrete follow-up plan — who is taking which question forward, and who they will work with.

  • Open access — no entry by invitation
  • One working modeller on every panel
  • A named follow-up emerges from every session
04
Coming v1.0

Layer 4

Concept-note co-formulation, lectures and supervision support

Methods brief, named adviser, peer channel, year-end showcase.

Layer 4 is the thin scaffolding around the student. AMB provides a short methods brief tailored to the question, helps the candidate co-formulate the concept note, attaches a named adviser from the modeller network, and opens a peer channel of students working on adjacent questions.

Each candidate also gets a profile on the platform, and — where appropriate — an *open-to-support* tag that lets funders see and back individual projects. The year ends with a showcase: every candidate presents what they learned, in front of their ministry, their supervisor, and the network.

  • Named adviser per candidate
  • Peer student channel (asynchronous)
  • Year-end showcase; open-to-support visibility
05
Coming v1.0

Layer 5

Communications, archive, spotlight and visibility

Public-facing layer: index, project pages, DOIs, monthly spotlight.

Layer 5 is what the rest of the world sees. The website publishes the document index, the question portfolio, the project profiles and the output archive (with Zenodo DOIs for anything substantive). A monthly researcher spotlight surfaces one student, one method, one country.

A funder-facing index — separate from the public site — lists every open-to-support dossier with budget asks, timelines, and named contacts.

  • Zenodo DOIs for outputs
  • Monthly researcher spotlight
  • Separate funder-facing dossier index

Scope

Why broader than malaria?

Malaria is where the lead consultant's network and credibility are deepest, and where the first concrete dossiers begin. But ministries do not run vertically by disease — they run horizontally across surveillance, supply chain, workforce, climate-sensitive programmes and procurement. The questions that come back from Layer 1 dialogues are the same shape regardless of disease.

So the Bridge is built disease-agnostic from v0.0. EPI coverage dropout in Malawi, ITN distribution in Tanzania, cholera surveillance in DRC — all sit on the same five layers, with the same artefacts, the same supervision model, and the same archive structure. Health first; the architecture extends.

What's next

See the dossiers, or back the layer.

Three preview dossiers are live now. The funder pathway shows where each $25k or $50k of support lands — a single question, a country layer, or the platform.